OUTLOOK 2026
Assessing the current context is a complex exercise, as there are differences between determining factors.
Adriano Zanoni
12. January 2026
Assessing the current context is a complex exercise, as there are differences between determining factors.
By examining the graph of the monthly averages of the SPI, DJIA, and NDX indices over the last three years, we find important indications for the immediate future.
In this EMR, we would like to emphasize that the economic and investment environment has never been as complex and contradictory as it has been in recent years, and particularly in 2025.
Historically mercantilism was a “state-controlled economic policy” from the 16th to the 18th century. Its aim was to strengthen the economic power of the state and accumulate national wealth, primarily through a positive trade balance as well as the accumulation of precious metals.
The current economic environment is generally defined or considered to be rather unique, despite there being a long history of change.
What can be deduced from the performance of selected share indices for the recent past and the foreseeable future is, at this crossing, the real question, isn’t it?
Factors worrying investors do not seem to concern the ups and downs of stock indices, the price of gold or even the price of oil, but rather the yields on interest rates (e.g. the yield on 10-year government bonds), which are mainly due to the policies of the Trump administration. This is where the de-terministic lines cross in terms of confidence, liquidity and, above all, the sus-tainability of the economic system and the financial system in particular.
Not a day goes by without President Trump, or another American political leader making a specific, relevant and/or surprising statement. Just think of the absurd export/import tax proposals, which began with the introduction in the United States of the import of certain goods from Canada, Mexico, and China starting in April 2025.
Before considering the economic effects of the extraordinary events of the 100 days of the Trump administration it is useful to review the politics behind the moves.
In our EMR March 2025, we dealt with the inappropriate stance taken by President Trump, imposing new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, although, as announced in the meantime, these may not be implemented, as announced!