Turning Points in 2023?
At the beginning of the new year, we may ask ourselves which of the following statements may be considered correct and thus a valid indicator of the most likely future developments.
Adriano Zanoni
9. January 2023
At the beginning of the new year, we may ask ourselves which of the following statements may be considered correct and thus a valid indicator of the most likely future developments.
Forecasting is a demanding exercise. Depending on the data quality of the series one uses it is possible to asses a “promising” outlook. In this EMR, we focus on the development of real GDP in the U.S. – depending on the business cycle – compared to the developments of stock indices.
Both the Covid-19 pandemic and Putin’s war against Ukraine are increasingly determining economic analysis, both in the short and long term. Also going almost unnoticed by the public debate are the consequences of “digital nomadism” and, in particular, the tax consequences of the migration of highly qualified professionals who take advantage of the opportunity to work at a computer in places where taxes are low.
Increasingly we read and hear analysts and market participants asking the following question about the markets whereabouts: Is the 2022 energy crisis comparable to – or even more insidious than – the 2008 financial crisis?
There is a wide divergence of opinion on short- to medium-term economic forecasts. We have the impression that the divergence has not been as great for a long time as it is now. We wonder if there are concrete reasons for these disagreements.
The monetary authorities have recently begun to raise interest rates in unprecedented steps. The declared aim is to contain the ongoing retail price increases. The reactions by the monetary authorities can be interpreted as an indicator of tightened monetary policy.
One could argue that the specific objective is to disentangle the links between the financial sector and the development of the real economy.
The current controversy is once again focused on the strategic role of interest rates and economic activity. Why, you might ask? Both variables provide a link between the financial environment and economic performance.
Recently, the global economy has started losing momentum due to the unacceptable Russian invasion of Ukraine as well as the sharp increase in inflation and also interest rates.
On the one hand, optimism reigns due to the economic growth of the leading nation, the United States, currently characterized by a consumer boom and near full employment.
The current geopolitical upheaval is changing the economic outlook and together with stagflation, caused by price shocks, points to a widely feared economic slowdown.