Forecasting is a demanding exercise. Depending on the data quality of the series one uses it is possible to asses a “promising” outlook. In this EMR, we focus on the development of real GDP in the U.S. – depending on the business cycle – compared to the developments of stock indices.
Both the Covid-19 pandemic and Putin’s war against Ukraine are increasingly determining economic analysis, both in the short and long term. Also going almost unnoticed by the public debate are the consequences of “digital nomadism” and, in particular, the tax consequences of the migration of highly qualified professionals who take advantage of the opportunity to work at a computer in places where taxes are low.
The monetary authorities have recently begun to raise interest rates in unprecedented steps. The declared aim is to contain the ongoing retail price increases. The reactions by the monetary authorities can be interpreted as an indicator of tightened monetary policy.
One could argue that the specific objective is to disentangle the links between the financial sector and the development of the real economy.