Economic and Market Report

The current economic environment is generally defined or considered to be rather unique, despite there being a long history of change.

What can be deduced from the performance of selected share indices for the recent past and the foreseeable future is, at this crossing, the real question, isn’t it?

Factors worrying investors do not seem to concern the ups and downs of stock indices, the price of gold or even the price of oil, but rather the yields on interest rates (e.g. the yield on 10-year government bonds), which are mainly due to the policies of the Trump administration. This is where the de-terministic lines cross in terms of confidence, liquidity and, above all, the sus-tainability of the economic system and the financial system in particular.

Not a day goes by without President Trump, or another American political leader making a specific, relevant and/or surprising statement. Just think of the absurd export/import tax proposals, which began with the introduction in the United States of the import of certain goods from Canada, Mexico, and China starting in April 2025.

Before considering the economic effects of the extraordinary events of the 100 days of the Trump administration it is useful to review the politics behind the moves.

In our EMR March 2025, we dealt with the inappropriate stance taken by President Trump, imposing new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, although, as announced in the meantime, these may not be implemented, as announced!

In addition to the frightening Russian aggression against Ukraine, President Trump issued three executive orders on 1 February 2025. With these, he instructed the United States to impose new tariffs on imports, all of which are due to come into force on 4 February 2025.

To some extent, we are all aware of the impact of election years, not only in relation to the United States, but also in European markets and Japan. Consequently, we consider the current environment to be particularly challenging in terms of the short to medium-term outlook for equity markets.

As most of us might recall, in 2024 we stressed the importance of the country and the currency selection. Let us recall the repetition of stock allocation and the respective focus on currencies as primary determinant.

By way of introduction, we will look at the performance of the S&P500 and the NASDAQ equity index since 1980 following the respective presidential elections. The aim is to remind investors that they should be prepared for short to medium-term fluctuations. To do this, we use the data from Christopher Hayes and Alex Harring, which is as follows: